Dark horses on the horizon!

The term “dark horse” gets thrown around a lot in sports writing, so before we dive in,  let’s be sure we have a clear definition.  A dark horse team is one that didn’t make the cut for the playoffs last year, but shows promise to do damage in the post season this year.

I assumed that there were always at least one or two teams that fell into this category each year.

But the numbers I discovered astounded me. 

Believe it or not, from 1996 to 2011, there were at least five new playoff teams each year.  That’s a complete change each year of almost half the playoff picture.  The numbers haven’t changed much since 2011, with at least four new teams each year.

This means we’re not just likely to see a few of these teams in the playoffs next year, it’s a certainty.  And they’re both going to be teams that others will want to watch out for.

AFC dark horse – from worst to first

For my AFC dark horse, I’ve got the two time AFC South Champion Houston Texans. 

I know, I know. You may think this is not a team that’s flying under the radar. After all, they did win the AFC South in back to back years very recently.

What you may not remember is that 2011 was the first time this team had a winning record.  It’s also worth noting that they did just come off a 2-14 season. Matt Schaub, a normally steady handed QB, turned into the spokesperson for the Turnover Machine 2014 model.

Heading into 2013, the Texans were expected to run away with the AFC South and be Super Bowl 48 contenders. 

Obviously that didn’t happen.

In fact, pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for Houston did go wrong last year.  Their head coach even had a heart attack at half time of one of their prime time games.

Let’s turn the page ahead to the 2014 Houston Texans.  The best offseason move the team made was hiring new head coach Bill O’Brien.  Most recently, O’Brien is well known for replacing the late Joe Paterno as the head coach of the Penn State Nittany Lions.  In spite of coming into arguably one of the messiest situations imaginable, O’Brien brought stability and success back to Penn State.  It’s worth noting that prior to the Penn State job, O’Brien was the Patriots offensive coordinator and was responsible for the dazzling New England offensive which came up just short in Super Bowl 46. 

O’Brien is exactly the right guy for this job.

He knows how to deal with adversity like he did at Penn State, he knows how to turn around an organization, something the worst football team from 2013 desperately needs.  O’Brien understands the quarterback position as well as any coach, and will be a huge asset to help the team get their offense back on track.

Let’s turn our attention to the other side of the ball – the defense! 

This has been and will certainly continue to be the Texans strong suit. 

Even last year the Texans had a defense that was strong enough to keep them in games in spite of how bad the offense was.  Nine of Houston’s fourteen losses were by one score or less.  In four of those losses, the Texans barely lost to some strong playoff teams by a field goal or less. 

This defense now includes a healthy Brian Cushing and of course, the number one pick Jadeveon Clowney.  Imagine facing down JJ Watt and Clowney and tell me the combination isn’t terrifying.  This should be a scary combination that will keep games low scoring.

It will be important for the defense to stay sharp in 2014 for the Texans to be successful, but that shouldn’t be a problem considering how much talent they have on that side of the ball. 

Although the offense lead by either Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tom Savage isn’t exactly awe inspiring, O’Brien is a sharp enough coach to get the most out of either quarterback.  In spite of the lack luster names at quarterback, it’s also important to remember that this is an offense that almost completely revolves around RB Arian Foster, who was injured for much of last season.  Foster is fully healthy this year and should be a great contributor again for the Texans. 

Expect for the Texans to win a lot of ugly games with scores like 15-12 next year.  This will be a team that won’t be strong enough to blow out its competition, but should be strong enough to qualify for a post season spot again in 2014. 

Houston has a fairly easy schedule in 2014, and will only have to face three playoff teams from a year ago.  Assuming Houston is playing January football again next year, they will be packing the two best playoff weapons a team can have – a rock solid defense and an outstanding run game.  The other AFC teams would do well to watch out for the Texans come January.

NFC Dark Horse – Gimme some Lovie

In the NFC, I’ve got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 2014 dark horse. 

Although their 4-12 record wasn’t quite as bad as the Texans, the Bucs had far more turmoil and drama than any other team in the NFL last year.  

Heck, I can’t remember the last time I heard about a team being such a mess.  If we weren’t hearing about anonymous players complaining about former head coach Greg Schiano, then we were reading headlines about players getting MRSA, a staph infection that is incredibly difficult to treat.  This is not the type of thing you should be getting exposed to in any sort of professional athletic facility, so not only did the Bucs suck on the field last year, but apparently they had one of the worst disease ridden locker rooms I’ve ever heard of.

But gone are these gross and depressing days! 

Welcome new head coach, a very familiar name – Lovie Smith.  You may remember him as the Bears head coach from 2004 to 2012, where the Bears were a consistently solid team with one Super Bowl appearance in 2006.  Smith was a clutch hire for Tampa Bay, he brings a sense of stability and respect back to a team that was mired in turmoil and drama last year.  Inspiring confidence in the team will go a long way in ensuring that the Bucs improve in dramatic fashion next season.

Smith isn’t the only reason for hope in Tampa Bay. I expect they’ll also be getting some help from within their division.  Although it’s almost certain that the power house Saints will continue to be good, I expect both the Falcons and Panthers to do a fair amount of floundering next year.  Atlanta hasn’t done enough to improve their porous defense from last year, and Carolina has been forced to part with too many key players because of hellish salary cap issues.  With these two teams out of the way, it will be much easier for the Bucs to make a push to win the division.

Look for the Bucs to be significantly better on offense with the addition of Mike Evans from the draft.  Mike Glennon showed some promise at QB last season, and rock solid Josh McCown is also in Tampa Bay now after great success in Chicago.  Now that there’s finally some talent at QB and someone other than just Vincent Jackson to throw the ball to, this offense finally has the pieces in place to be successful.

Although the offseason departure of Darrelle Revis is certainly the lowlight for this team in the offseason, I actually expect great things from the defense next year.  Tampa Bay boasts one of the most solid core group of young defensive players in the NFL and I expect that they will only get better. 

Just to name some of their defensive talent, the Bucs signed DE Michael Johnson to help with their pass rush and DT Gerald McCoy has become one of the premiere players at his position. 

Expect great things out of this unit in 2014.  This is a team that’s been rebuilding for quite a while now and it certainly appears that they finally have enough pieces in place to make a strong post season run.

What do you think?

So what do you think about my dark horse picks?  Who do you see emerging as some not obvious play off threats?  Anyone out there bold enough to make some arguments for the Jags or Raiders?