Who’s really the best?
/Out of the top veteran quarterbacks in the NFL, who is the most likely to win a championship in the immediate future? Or is it more likely that none of them will?
First, let’s figure out who our “top” quarterbacks are. Out of the 32 starters, let’s get rid of the unproven young guns, i.e. RG3, Luck, Foles, etc. This leaves us with the likes of the Mannings, Flacco, Cutler, Palmer and so on. Who sticks out as consistent winners? Who are the unfaltering leaders who are able to guide their teams through adversity, injuries and tough schedules and qualify for the post season?
The four that separate themselves from the pack are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Although it was tempting to include other QBs who have already won championships like Joe Flacco, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, the four names I listed are different. My top four have all been the models of consistency, leading their teams to the post season nearly every season they’ve started. I don’t see that caliber from others. Don’t get me wrong here – I’m not saying guys like Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler don’t have plenty of talent, but I don’t think that they’re top tier quarterbacks either. When I look at the list of top tier quarterbacks, I think of guys who can make mediocre or even bad teams look good. Most recently, Brady and Rodgers made their teams into division champions in 2013 despite rosters with glaring needs on both sides of the ball.
So the question is – who is most likely to win another Super Bowl or Super Bowls in the immediate future? Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Manning? Or is the answer none of the above? Is it possible that none of these QBs will ever win another Super Bowl?
I know that a fair of number of fans subscribe to the theory that none of them will win another Super Bowl. Many people point to the Seahawks as a good example of why it can be difficult to win a Super Bowl with a big name quarterback. As was clearly demonstrated in Super Bowl 48 last February, the Seahawks were by far the most talented roster in the NFL. One reason that the team was able to put together such an amazing roster was because they didn’t have to pay any individual player an exuberant amount of money. Obviously when you have a big name like Drew Brees on your roster, you have to pay him big name money. It’s important to remember here that football is a team sport. Even an amazing talent like Peyton Manning needs receivers to throw the ball to and a defense to keep the score from getting out of hand. Having big name players on your roster does restrict the talent that you can put around them. If you’re not convinced of this fact, look at the difference between the 2012 and 2013 Ravens. After winning the Super Bowl in 2012, Baltimore was forced to award Joe Flacco a massive contract, which meant they had to cut ties with solid veterans like Anquan Boldin and Paul Kruger. The difference was easy to see, the 2013 Ravens finished a mediocre 8-8 and missed the postseason for the first time in Flacco’s tenure.
Personally, I’m betting on Peyton Manning being the most likely to win another Super Bowl. The Broncos are more devoted than any other team to winning right now. John Elway and the Broncos front office clearly know that Manning is getting to an age where there are no more guarantees about next season. Additions of big names like Welker, Talib and Ware in the past two offseasons show that the Broncos are committed to winning another championship before Manning retires. The Broncos are putting all their chips on the table with Manning, spending big money on putting talented veterans around him right now to win a championship. As soon as Manning retires, the Broncos will have to almost completely rebuild the team.
The Patriots operate with a very different philosophy than the Broncos. Under Belichick, New England has had a phenomenal track record of getting the most out of players for cheap. The Patriots rarely make moves for expensive veterans and instead favor building the team in with no name players in free agency and the draft. The Patriots can get away with doing things like playing Julian Edleman on defense and depending on no name receivers like Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson because Belichick is one of very few coaches who can scheme around players. Most systems require specific players to fit certain roles on the team while the Patriots are able to take players off the street and plug them into their versatile system. Out of the four big quarterbacks, Tom Brady is the one who’s asked to do the most with the least. The Patriots don’t surround him with top tier talent, and although his individual skill is enough to lead them on deep playoff runs, the Patriots still have too many other needs to win another championship. It’s unlikely that New England will put together a good enough roster before Brady’s contract expires in 2017 to win another championship.
Before moving on to Rodgers and Brees, it’s worth mentioning that they are both at a major disadvantage since they play in the NFC. The NFC is a vastly superior conference to the AFC, which means that the Saints and Packers are going to get significantly more beaten up during the regular season and playoffs than either the Patriots or the Broncos.
In terms of raw talent, Aaron Rodgers is by far the most talented quarterback playing in the entire NFL right now. The most obvious indicator of this is the fact that Rodgers is the only quarterback whose rating significantly increases when he’s pressured. It also bears noting that Rodgers was sacked an NFL high 50 times in 2009 and was still able to throw 30 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the Packers have constantly failed to provide him with solid protection. The Packers were forced to face life without their star quarterback for about half of the 2013 season after Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone. Although Rodgers is completely healed from the injury, it’s unreasonable to expect him to lead his team to another Super Bowl until Green Bay makes protecting him a priority. The Packers have had lots of chances to improve the protection for Rodgers, most recently in the 2014 draft which was full of talented linemen, but Green Bay has constantly focused on other needs. If Rodgers somehow gets behind a good to decent offensive line, then he’ll tear through other teams on the way to multiple Super Bowl wins.
For Drew Brees, the problem isn’t offense, it’s defense. When the Saints won Super Bowl 44, a lot of their success was thanks to their defense, which was number one in the NFL in defensive scoring that year. It’s worth noting that the 2009 Saints defense actually scored more points than some teams offenses. Ever since then, though, the Saints have never been able to get back to having that power house defense. Although their defensive line looks like it’s in better shape right now, there are a lot of questions in the secondary.
What do you think? Who is the most likely to win another Super Bowl in the next three to five years? Are there more quarterbacks you think should be listed in the top tier? Or do you think we’ll see more young quarterbacks like Russell Wilson win championships in the immediate future?
