The NFL is Rigged

I’m the new guy so I thought I better just get this out of the way.  I used to religiously follow the NFL and after Elway lost that second Super Bowl I just sort of lost interest as a kid.  Then when I started working in sports talk radio in the late 90’s I started following it again.  The guys at the station were obviously super in to the NFL but there were a couple guys who followed the WWE.  That’s when I realized the NFL is rigged.

I know it sounds crazy but I don’t really view the NFL all that much different than the WWE.  To me both are sports entertainment.  The biggest difference to me is that the athletes in the NFL don’t know it’s all predetermined.  Well, maybe not all….but I’m getting ahead of myself.

Let’s start at the realities of the industry.  The NFL is a $45 Billion industry.  That’s a lot of money.  You know where else there is a lot of money involved in the NFL?  Vegas.  Each week an estimated $50 Million is wagered on the NFL.  That’s  $800 Million for just the regular season.  Vegas doesn’t run solely on the NFL sports bets but it sure doesn’t want to see it go away.  Lastly, refs in the league make an average of $173,000 a year to memorize an incredibly complicated rule book that week after week they seem to get wrong.

I know what you’re thinking, “…what’s that got to do with fixing an NFL game?”  Nothing.  Maybe everything.  That rule book and how it’s plays are interpreted makes it pretty simple to get the outcomes you want.    You see it’s my belief that those random holding and pass interference calls that seem to happen at the most inopportune times aren’t always just bad calls (or good calls in some cases).

See the NFL is invested in who wins each week.  Outside of what happens in your bathroom nobody wants to see the Browns in the Superbowl.  They have super stars that they want to face off that are going to sell tickets and drive ratings.  All that makes the NFL worth more.  Despite their  previous nonprofit status they are indeed a profit machine.

Vegas is also invested.  They are the ones setting the the lines for games each week.  They can’t afford to be wrong too often than not.  They need games to be close enough that gamblers will be enticed to spend their money week after week.  It’s in their best interests to make sure they know outcomes.

Which leads us to the refs.  Now I don’t think all the refs are dirty.  Maybe they are, but not all of them need to be.  There only needs to be a handful to fix a game here or there.  Again, I know what you are thinking “Ben, I think we would know if there were bad refs in the league.”  People didn’t know that Tim Donaghy was fixing games for years in the NBA.  Sure he was caught but it’s suspected that is only because his bookie who had mob ties turned on him.

How does it work?  How do these three entities work together to get the results that will make the most money, get the results they desire and still fly under the radar?  It’s pretty simple.  Bribe, blackmail whatever you need to do find a couple dirty refs.  Make sure they are different teams of refs so that you have the opportunity to fix as many games as you might need to on any given week.  Then look at the schedule, look at the line and figure out which team or teams do you need to advance in order to make the whole thing work.

What’s great about this system is that you don’t have to fix every game.  You only have to fix one maybe two a week.  Suddenly the Browns are 1-5 again and Peyton Manning is in the hunt for another disappointing playoff run.  Not every ref you have in the pocket has to actively throw a game so it’s not as obvious as Earl Hebner in Montreal Screw Job.  It’s almost perfect.  The rule book is so complicated and the game is already so difficult to call a wonky call here or there is almost just part of the game.  All the while it seems like everything is on the up and up.

How many times have you heard “It’s a game of inches” or “One play can totally change the outcome of a game.”?  That only feeds in to the ability to fix games.  In this age of “on any given Sunday” truly any given Sunday a team can win or cover a spread thanks to a little help.

What do you think?  Is it fixed?  Is it not even possible in your mind?  Would it ruin the experience of the NFL if you found it was fixed?  Let us know in the comments below or call in to appear on the podcast.